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Climatic Trends in the Temperature of Çanakkale City, Turkey

Semih Kale*

Abstract

Climate is a dynamic process changing in both temporal and spatial scales. Climate change and global warming has been extensively accepted and commonly described as rising of the temperature. Long-term trends and changes in the series of monthly, seasonal and annual temperature of Çanakkale station (Çanakkale, Turkey) of Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) were analyzed by considering temporal characteristics. Climatic data for temperature encompasses the period of between 1970 and 2012. Temperature data set has been arranged as climatological seasons that spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November), and winter (December, January, February). Non-parametric tests and Box-Jenkins method were used to determine climatic trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied for determining the change point of temperature dataset. Results of trend analysis revealed that there was a statistically significant increasing trend in the temperature. Mean annual temperature is predicted to increase 0.02977°C per year and it is forecasted to reach 15.9946°C in 2022. On the other hand, mean seasonal temperatures are predicted to increase 0.0121°C, 0.05877°C, 0.0350°C, and 0.0031°C per year for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The increase in temperature trends indicates that global warming is causing to climate change. In light of the results, it is crucial to state that Çanakkale city will be affected by global warming and climate change, and also will have a warmer climate in the future.

Keywords

Climate change, Change-point analysis, Temperature, Trend analysis

 

Volume 2, No 3, 14-27, 2017

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