Abstract

Rising as a critical threat to global sustainability, food security, and climate change, Uzbekistan has an increased focus on areas sensitive to heat and water. The landlocked Central Asian country is facing myriads of rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, all of which significantly impact agricultural productivity. This research aims to analyze the impact of climate variability on the crop yields in the key agricultural regions of Uzbekistan, which include Fergana Valley, Khorezm, Karakalpakstan, and Syr Darya basin. With the help of Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and machine learning, we investigate spatiotemporal trends of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation indices. This research also incorporates historical yield data of major crops, such as cotton and wheat, to simulate the relationship between environmental stresses and agricultural performance. Our findings indicate, particularly in areas reliant on surface irrigation, the yield losses often associated with climate anomalies highlighting negative yield impacts during drought periods and increased yields during wetter years, also referred to as 'yield hijacking'. The project aims to develop an evidence-based constructive adaptive agriculture policy framework that focuses on climate impact mitigation strategies, climate hazard resilience enhancement, resource optimization, and improved food security in Uzbekistan