Abstract

Epinephelus genus of Serranidae family is represented in the seas of Turkey with four species including Epinephelus aeneus, E. caninus, E. costae and E. marginatus. These species are distributed in the Mediterranean and the Aegean coasts but not the Black Sea, and only E. marginatus is also distributed in the Marmara Sea. Epinephelus genus species which are included in the demersal fish stocks that are economically important in the seas of Turkey have become endangered in years due to many factors. The lowest and the highest levels of production for the genus are 35 tons in 1976 and 808 tons in 1994, respectively. Also, E. aeneus is categorized under near threatened list (NT) and E. marginatus is categorized under Endangered (EN) list in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. In this study, the amount of future productions for the Dusky Grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) and the White Grouper (Epinephelus aeneus) distributed in the seas of Turkey were estimated using the retrospective production level data. Time Series Analysis method was applied to the data for 1972-2014 obtained by Turkey Statistical Institute (TUIK). In conclusion, the estimated level of production for the Dusky Grouper and the White Grouper which are among the products of commercial fisheries in Turkey for the year 2030 was found as 373 tons/year. Also, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for the Epinephelus genus was calculated as 595 tons/year and 145 tons/year, respectively.