Abstract

Objective: The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is one of the most endangered big cats. It was commonly found in the high mountains of Central and South Asia. Its population is small, fragmented, and under threat from poaching, habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, and climate change. This study aims to understand the long-term survival prospects of the snow leopard by using a Population Viability Analysis (PVA), a modelling tool that predicts how a species might respond to various threats and conservation actions over time. Materials and methods: We built a non-spatial, age-structured PVA model using demographic, genetic, and environmental data. Key biological parameters, including adult survival, cub survival, reproductive age, fecundity, and maximum lifespan, were included. We also added genetic risks, such as inbreeding and low diversity, based on genome-wide data. Threats such as poaching, human-wildlife conflict, and catastrophic events (e.g., disease outbreaks) were modelled to see how they affect the population. The model started with an estimated global population of around 7,400 snow leopards. Simulation scenarios showed that adult survival, cub survival, and fecundity are the most important traits affecting population growth. When threats like poaching and rare disasters were added, extinction risk increased significantly, especially when threats occurred together. Scenarios with inbreeding showed even greater risk, suggesting that genetic isolation worsens survival chances. This highlights the need to maintain genetic connectivity between subpopulations. Results: The sensitivity analysis showed that small changes in survival and reproduction could strongly influence population stability. The other factors, such as generation time and carrying capacity, had less impact. Improving the cub survival and protecting adults are important in the long run. It also shows how layering multiple threats, such as poaching plus habitat disturbance, can quickly push populations below safe levels. Conclusion: This study shows that the targeted conservation strategies can determine the Snow Leopard’s future. It addresses the most sensitive life traits and most damaging threats. The PVA gives a realistic way to predict future population and guide conservation decisions to prevent extinction by combining the demographic, genetic and threat-based data.