Abstract

Using Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) from Landsat 7 and 8, this research examines the effects of climate change on vegetation and water in the Eastern Euphrates Project in the Hoor Al-Huwaizah wetlands and southern Iraq from 2002 to 2025 within a GIS environment. Preliminary findings suggest significant 2002-2025 changes, predominantly the increased diversity (spreading from a weak 96.3% cover) of the vegetation to a more balanced distribution of moderate and dense growth cover, indicative of the first stages of ecological recovery, probably resultant from regional climate changes and anthropogenic alterations of land cover near the wetlands. MNDWI also displayed a further positive trend of surface water availability recovery over time from 0.45% (2002) to 39.7% (2025) and despite the recovery of water surface within the wetlands, increasing unpredictability levels of dynamic/extreme climate change on near real time hydrology (i.e. >7 day to seasonal range uncertainty) and/or temperature (related wicked problems) dramatically increases the vulnerability of the region. Further research should focus on the need for effective adaptive frameworks to support wetland ecosystem stability. This study highlights the necessity of holistic ecological observations, based on methods such as the use of SAVI and MNDWI remote sensing indices, which are fundamental for the formulation of rationally founded climate change adaptation policy and the establishment of sustainable land and water management in semiarid regions.