Abstract

This study develops a systems dynamics model to analyze the impact of technology adoption on Hass avocado producers in Colombia. Constructed on a structure composed of three subsystems: production, economic profitability, technology adoption, and marketing, the main variables that influence the growth of this agroindustry are identified. Consequently, the model identifies factors such as technical training, subsidies, social influence, and connectivity, which directly affect the rate of technology adoption. Applying Stella simulations, two scenarios were contrasted: The first model with active promotion of technology and the second model with decreased institutional funding. The outcomes show that a favorable environment with economic and technical support be able to significantly grow the number of producers by means of technology, increase marketable volume, and boost economic profit levels. Similarly, a decrease in incentives reduces the adoption process, leading to a diminution in the sustainability of Hass avocado cultivation. The proposed model proposes an analytical tool for formulating public policies designed to strengthen the Hass avocado agro-export sector in Colombia.